The "War Economy" and the Ten Black Swans Predicted by Saxo Bank for 2023

"The days of low interest rates being able to create dreams of a peaceful society centered on renewable energy, equality, and autonomous central banks are long gone. In the year 2023, the economies of the globe will transition into a mode known as the War Economy, in which national economic benefits and independent dependence take precedence over globalization." That is how emphatic Saxo Bank is being after it recently released its study on the black swans that are expected to occur in the upcoming year.

Black swans are events that have a significant socioeconomic impact and that, once they have occurred, are analyzed with hindsight and eventually become events that could have been expected. Once a black swan has occurred, it can be analyzed with hindsight and become an event that could have been expected.

The following is a list of the top 10 "crazy" predictions made by the Danish bank:

1. A group that is worth several billions of dollars has created a new "Manhattan Project," which is a plan for energy that will cost one trillion dollars.

Because of the ever-increasing demand for energy, the wealthiest people on the planet have banded together to start a research and development project of a scale that the world hasn't seen since the Manhattan Project gave the United States its first atomic bomb.

2. The resignation of French President Emmanuel Macron

After the election in 2022, the political gridlock in France and the growth of Marine Le Pen will put President Macron in an impossible position, and he will be forced to give up politics and resign from office.

3. The price of gold skyrockets to $3,000 an ounce as central banks are unable to rein in inflation

Gold skyrockets to a price of $3,000 an ounce as global financial markets and central banks come to the realization that the assumption that inflation is temporary is incorrect and that prices will remain high for a longer period of time.

4. The European Union establishes its own own military forces.

As a result of ongoing conflicts in the area and the fact that the United States military is not performing its customary function as a global protector, the European Union has come to the conclusion that it needs to establish its own military in order to protect itself from a variety of geopolitical threats, such as the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

5. A single nation makes the commitment to end all production of beef by the year 2030.

One nation has made the decision to not only place a significant charge on meat, but also to outlaw the production of meat on its own territory. This is done with the goal of becoming one of the world's leaders in the race to achieve net-zero emissions.

6. A vote to revoke Brexit is held in the United Kingdom.

Following a period of economic contraction and intense pressure from within the country, the United Kingdom is currently mired in political upheaval, which will be resolved by a vote to cancel Brexit.

7. Comprehensive pricing restrictions to restrain the rate of official inflation

The lessons of history teach us that rationing and price controls are inextricably linked to the economics of wartime. The situation is the same as it has been in the past, with rulers beginning to implement stringent pricing controls, which leads to a range of outcomes that were not intended.

8. OPEC+ and "Chindia" withdraw their membership from the IMF and reach an agreement to trade in new reserve assets

The United States' sanctions against Russia have produced significant unrest around the world as a result of the movement of the dollar in countries that do not consider the United States to be an ally. They decide to withdraw from the IMF and establish a new reserve asset in order to rescue themselves from this situation.

9. The exchange rate of the US dollar to the Japanese yen will remain unchanged at 200 while Japan restructures its financial system

Following the difficulties that the Japanese yen encountered in 2022, the Bank of Japan makes an effort to stop the currency from declining further. If this strategy does not prove successful over the long run, Japan will restart the entirety of its financial system. The public uproar over increasing inflation reaches a fever pitch, causing USD/JPY to climb to levels between $160 and $170. When the USD/JPY exchange rate climbed above $180, the government and the central bank took action and established a limit of $200.

10. The elimination of tax havens obliterates private capital

The war economy brings with it a heightened awareness of the importance of national interests and the capacity of independent nations to stand up for themselves. In this sense, OECD countries shift their focus to tax havens and take out the big guns by completely prohibiting the use of such locations.