The far right is likely to win Italy's upcoming election, Rome's biggest political revolution in decades.
Sunday's election in Italy is expected to produce a far-right administration. This would be a major political upheaval for a nation facing economic and political uncertainties.
Before September 9 (when a blackout period began), surveys predicted a right-wing coalition would win a majority in the lower and upper chambers.
Giorgia Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia chairs the alliance (Brothers of Italy). It contains Lega, Forza Italia, and Noi Moderati, three right-leaning parties.
The Brothers of Italy party is expected to get the most votes. Politiche 2022 predicts it will earn 25% of the vote, much surpassing its closest right-wing ally, Lega, which is anticipated to receive 12%.
Former Prime Minister Enrico Letta's Democratic Party is expected to receive 21% of the vote. The Green and Left Alliance, More Europe, and Civic Commitment are expected to get single-digit shares.
Mario Draghi resigned after he couldn't unite a fragmented political alliance behind his economic policies. Quick election resulted.
Brotherhood of Italy
Giorgia Meloni, leader of Fratelli d'Italia, could become Italy's first female prime minister. She'd be Italy's first far-right leader since Mussolini a century ago.
Carlo Ciccioli, head of Fratelli d'Italia in Le Marche, told CNBC the party's popularity has "extended to the rest of Italy"
We are likely the largest party in the country, but this won't be verified until Sunday's election, not by polls. Fratelli d'Italia will triumph because... We have solid leadership. Jouma Bercetche claimed Giorgia Meloni is politically astute.
Fratelli d'Italia was founded in 2012, but it began as Italy's neo-fascist movement after Mussolini's 1945 death.
Giorgia Meloni and a group of Berlusconi's PdL created Fratelli d'Italia. Its name comes from the Italian national anthem.
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The party's popularity has since overtaken Lega's. It has resonated with those concerned about immigration, Italy's relationship with the EU, and the economy.
Analysts say the party's refusal to join Draghi's broad-based alliance boosted its appeal.
Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of a risk consultancy, described Meloni as "an outsider in the political system and the lone opposition figure."
Procedures
Fratelli d'Italia's nationalist, nativist, and anti-immigration views echo Italy's fascist era.
Meloni claimed in the summer that Italy's right-wing had "relegated fascism to the dustbin of history for decades."
Meloni claimed in 2019 that she wants to maintain "God, nation, and family."
Fratelli d'Italia no longer opposes the euro in Europe but supports EU reform to make it less bureaucratic and influential in domestic politics. "A less-but-better Europe" is one of its mantras.
On the economic front, it has given to the center-right coalition's demand that the next administration should decrease sales taxes on some commodities to help the cost of living crisis and that Italy should renegotiate its Covid recovery funds with the EU.
Fratelli d'Italia is pro-NATO, pro-Ukraine, and supports Russia sanctions, unlike the Lega.
The party has also been amiable with one of the EU's most prominent adversaries, Hungary's President Viktor Orban, defending the dictatorial leader when the European Parliament determined Hungary was no longer a democracy.
Center-left politicians worry that a Meloni government could disrupt European connections. Enrico Letta, chairman of the Democratic Party, told CNBC's Steve Sedgwick that Italy had two options in Europe: staying on top or being "relegated."
The first option is to maintain our place in the 'first division.' The first section includes Brussels, Germany, France, and Spain, also founders.
The second option is to be downgraded to the second division with Poland and Hungary, staying with them against Brussels, Berlin, Paris, and Madrid.
He remarked, "I feel it would be bad for Italy to pick the second division."
Several experts have called Meloni a political chameleon because of her fluctuating stances.
Teneo's Wolfango Piccoli said in September, "Will Meloni be the one who praised Viktor Orban or Mario Draghi's anti-Russia stance?"
"The sovereigntist who sought Italy's departure from the euro or the soothing leader who took a more traditional position toward Europe?"
The populist who supported a military blockade in the Mediterranean to stem the unlawful stream of immigrants... or the more responsible conservative leader who sought a European solution?" he asked.
Being Italy (a country that has infamously had 69 administrations since World War II), some instability and volatility are predicted in the wake of the election, not least because conflicts within the right-wing alliance's FdI, Lega, and Forza Italia are likely to arise.
Salvini and Berlusconi will challenge coalition partners after a (likely) electoral setback by focusing on fiscal austerity, pensions, and Russia sanctions.
Policy disputes and personal rivalries will arise soon after the election, Piccoli said, hurting the next government.

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